the 27η November, Jihadist forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), ex-Jabhat Nusra, ex-Islamic State, launched Operation "Repelling the Aggression", where with a surprise attack from Idlib province on Syria's jewel city, Aleppo and they occupied almost all of it. Then with the momentum of surprise, ferocity and unopposed withdrawal of the Syrian National Army, they advanced to the South, controlling the all-important M5 highway that connects Damascus to the North and the border with Turkey. The jihadists emerged from the Idlib region, an area west of Syria, which, following the September 2017 Astana Agreement between Russia, Iran and Turkey, reached an agreement on the issue of Idlib and demarcated the fourth de-confliction zone, the region of Idlib. There they gathered the defeated jihadist terrorist Islamist organizations, along with their families, resulting in a jihadist "dump", with responsibility, supervision, and supply from Turkey.
Idlib
Turkey, assuming control of the dark and dangerous region, knew both the risks and the benefits it would derive from the control and influence it gained over the fanatical Islamists, especially the Sunnis, for any difficult, dangerous and of course illegal action that would be required for the implementation of its geostrategic pursuits. And Turkey for any black or dirty business anywhere, until now, used the jihadists of Idlib, who for a little money could carry out any mission, anywhere in the world. A typical example is Turkey's involvement in Libya, with the dispatch and use of war-experienced and war-ready Islamist fanatics from Idlib, who achieved what it sought. The interception of General Haftar's forces, to save Tripoli and now fully control Western Libya. The channels of communication, the imports of food (and not only), the exits from this idiosyncratic jihadist dump were basically done by Turkey, which benefited financially from these transactions. The survival of the terrorist formation depends on sponsorships from Arab states, such as the Gulf countries, the Turkish intelligence service MIT, the smuggling of weapons and drugs and especially the artificial amphetamine Captagon, the so-called "pill of the of princes", which is abundantly produced in Syria and trafficked with the participation of Hezbollah.
The Invasion
And now we come to this sudden invasion, which seems to have taken the Syrian government and Iran, which is the leading force of the so-called "Axis of Resistance", of which Syria is a member, as well as the Shiite militias, by surprise, although it should not. of Iraq and of course the known terrorist organizations, Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi. The attackers are the Islamic extremist organizations of HTS, the SDA (Syrian Democratic Army), which is the Syrian-led opposition, as well as other Islamic extremist organizations, as well as a Turkmen Brigade created and equipped by Turkey, where in a lightning attack , equipped with Turkish weapons, ammunition and vehicles and led by Turkish staffs, managed to occupy most of Aleppo and via the M5 highway they reached Hama within a few days, as the government forces retreated, without putting up any substantial and vigorous resistance, occupying the area (about the size of Idlib), shown on the map below , with green and dashes. The blue areas in the North are the areas, inhabited by YPG Syrian Kurds, that Turkey had captured and is still holding and I believe it will never hand over. Also, the yellow area east of the Euphrates is controlled by the YPG Kurds, the black scattered areas are jihadist islands and the red is the Syrian area, controlled by the legitimate government of Syria and President Assad.
The rebels' rapid gains – the most significant since 2016 – are bringing rapid developments to the Middle East region and existing alliances. The questions are many and the answers are not easy. The main question is whether the intelligence services were aware of the preparation that was developing in the Idlib region and when the attack would occur. If they knew, what did the immediate stakeholders such as Syria and the Kurds of the region do. Why did it happen right after the cease fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah and is it related to this operation? Did Turkey know about it and does it have an important role in the operation? After all, what are the goals of this business and who is responsible and who loses?
Turkey behind everything.
In response to these questions, it seems that behind all this is Turkey, which prepared, trained and planned the operation in question with the information of the US. According to information from Middle East media, the planning and training had started at least two months ago, it was planned to take place in March, but it was rushed to take place now, due to the cease fire agreement between Israel - Lebanon and Hezbollah. Turkey had many reasons for this attack. It came at a sensitive diplomatic moment: a diplomatic rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara has been delayed for years, with the aim of preserving territory held by Turkey in the north, which Assad refuses not to discuss, but even to meet with Erdogan. The areas occupied by Turkey during the war in Syria are with operations:
A. "Shield of the Euphrates» in 2016-17, occupying the Yarablus region, where the ethnic Turkmen existed.
B. "Olive branch”, in 2018, which occupied the province of Afrin, a purely Kurdish region, which they were expelled.
C. "Source of Peace", in 2019, occupying the area of Tel Abyad-Ras el Ain, east of the Euphrates on the Turkey-Syria border, inhabited by Kurds.
Russia and Iran are calling for a de-escalation, but Damascus is demanding the withdrawal of Turkish troops deployed in northern Syria along the border with Turkey, meaning it could intervene, and Assad, with the help of Russian air force bombing the invaders and its allies in Iraq and Iran, vows to crush the jihadists, in war to the end. For Caroline Rose of the Washington-based Newlines Institute, the measured response by Damascus' allies may be "a way to force the Assad regime to negotiate from a weaker position and absent any sign of support from the Russians and Iranians." , as he wrote in X. Perhaps the Russian bombings are just deliberate and of course to keep the jihadists from getting closer to the West, who have their two bases in Latakia and Tartous.
The purpose of Turkey's implementation of this operation is to neutralize any plan to implement the Kurdish Rojava, i.e. a Kurdish state on the northern border of Syria. And this is because recently the Nightmare Maps of Turkey, by Ralph Peters and Robin Wright, have been re-released, referring to a reconfiguration of the borders in the Middle East and the creation of a Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq. Even this whole region in Northern Syria is included in the Map of the National Oath (Misak I Milli), which also includes Aleppo, the city dreamed of by Mustafa Kemal. Another factor that comes into the equation is Ukraine. According to the Kyiv Independent newspaper, Ukraine trained jihadists in Idlib and provided MEA (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), of course in consultation and cooperation with Turkey.
Winners and Losers.
This attack is Turkey's resounding message to Assad for negotiations and from a position of strength to impose on him the reservation of the territories he possessed. Now he also wants the region of Aleppo, on the one hand to unite the regions of Idlib, Afrin and Yarablus into a single area and on the other hand to settle the Syrian refugees who have accumulated in Turkey.
Israel is also among the winners. Syria belonged to the "Axis of Resistance" and on its territory there were installations and Units of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran, which trained, planned, provided supplies and weapon systems to their allies and many times attacked the territory of Israel with fire. The supply axes for Hezbollah, but also for Hamas, passed through the territory of Syria. Also, in a change to the "Status Quo" in Syria, Israel consolidates and "wins" the Golan Heights, which it occupied since the 1967 war. Of course, it also has a loss, due to the alliance and support of the Kurdish YPG, which is located in a difficult position and his aspirations to create a state seem to be out of favor for now. And the US knew about the operation and gave the approval, because of the planned new Middle East, although this operation does not favor the Kurdish allies in Syria.
On the side of the losers, first and foremost are Syria and President Assad, who if he fails to respond victoriously to the invasion will lose other territories and possibly his power as well. Even in this phase are the YPG Kurds, who are fighting in this phase against the pro-Turkish jihadists and hoping for tomorrow. And all its allies are lost, such as Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and most importantly Russia, which with its two bases had set foot in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. It may be that in the Syrian war in the 2020s it had a substantial interventionist presence and helped Syria to face the Islamic State, now with the war in Ukraine it is very difficult to get involved and significantly help its ally Assad and Syria in general.
Thus concluding, we would say until now, that the winners are Turkey and Israel, the USA favorably neutral and lost strategically and on the field the Axis of Resistance, which is collapsing, from the successive blows on the field and the administrative beheadings of his proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. It's too early to write off the Assad regime, says the BBC. It has a core of genuine support. Some Syrians see it as the least bad option – better than the jihadists who dominated the insurgency. But if other anti-Assad groups – and there are many – rise up, his regime will once again be in mortal danger. And lest we forget, we do not see any condemnation of the "civilized democratic" West in this invasion of Turkey by proxy, not even for Greece to speak, as it has a moral and national right, about the hundreds of thousands of Rum (Romans, Greeks of Syria ) Christian Orthodox of Syria, who are exterminated in the area of operations of our "friends" the Turks, except for Ukraine. As reported in a BBC analysis, the events in Syria in recent days are yet another proof that the war dominating the Middle East is escalating and not abating.
From YouTube Channel NAVTEMPORIKI
