Lieutenant General (retd) Ioannis Baltzoi warns of a serious escalation of tension in the Aegean Sea and estimates that the so-called "calm waters" may become particularly warm during the autumn months.
A clear warning for a new period of tension in Greek-Turkish relations, focusing on the Aegean, Kasos and energy projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, was issued by Lieutenant General (retd) Ioannis Baltzoi during his intervention in "Naftemporiki".
Mr. Baltzoi estimated that the Greece-Israel agreement on the "Achilles Shield" is expected to provoke a strong reaction from Ankara, especially at a time when relations between Turkey and Israel are in open crisis.
"From now on, the 'calm waters' will begin to warm up, which have essentially never existed," he said, predicting that the situation could become particularly hot during the autumn months, and especially near October.
As he argued, the period of Greek-Turkish recession was exploited by Turkey to gradually advance its claims. "For us, it was calm waters. For the Turks, it was an exploitable situation, through which they advanced and we reached what we see today," he noted.
"Appeasement became destructive"
He appeared particularly sharp against the policy of appeasement, which he described as failed and dangerous for Greek interests.
According to the lieutenant general, appeasement can only be a temporary tactic when a state seeks to gain time to prepare militarily and diplomatically. However, in the case of Greece, he argued that it has been applied for decades without the corresponding use of time.
"We have been appeasing for 30 or 40 years. It is no longer beneficial, but destructive. Turkey considers us to be in a state of weakness and is exploiting it," he stressed.
He even cited Thucydides, recalling that law can essentially function between equivalent states, while freedom and independence are ensured primarily by the power possessed by each country.
"We treat International Law as if it were some global superpower that will automatically intervene against those who are wronged. It is not like that," he pointed out.
"The Blue Homeland is applied in the field"
Ioannis Baltzoi argued that Turkey is no longer limited to the theoretical projection of the "Blue Homeland", but is attempting to implement it in practice, through NAVTEX, research activities, maritime projects and continuous questioning of Greek sovereign rights.
At the same time, he described Israel as Turkey's "evil demon", explaining that Ankara knows that the Israeli leadership will not back down when it believes that the vital interests of its state are at stake.
Greece's close cooperation with Israel and the construction of the "Achilles Shield" are, according to his assessment, changing the security balance in the region and forcing Turkey to reconsider its planning.
"Fear syndromes prevent expansion to 12 miles"
Referring to Greece's right to extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles, Mr. Baltzoi attributed the political system's many years of inaction to "phobic syndromes."
As he said, each government transfers the decision to the next, citing the "appropriate time", but without specifying when and under what circumstances it will come.
"The only explanation I find is phobic syndromes. Whoever is in leadership considers the 12 miles a hot potato and leaves it to the next person. But when is the right time? When Turkey will not have Armed Forces or when Greece will acquire terrifying power?", he wondered.
According to him, the continuous postponement works to the benefit of Turkey, which gradually increases its demands, starting each time from the point where it stopped during the previous crisis.
Risk of "Finlandization" without war
The lieutenant general warned that the insistence on appeasement may lead Greece to a form of "Finlandization", that is, the cession of national sovereignty and sovereign rights without a prior military defeat.
"Turkey sees that Greek political personnel are possessed by phobic syndromes and are advancing step by step. We risk conceding national sovereignty and sovereign rights without war," he noted.
At the same time, he rejected the argument that appeasement prevents a military conflict. On the contrary, he argued that history proves that continuous retreat from a revisionist power strengthens its aggression.
He cited as an example the policy followed by Britain and France towards Nazi Germany before World War II, pointing out that the attempt to appease Hitler did not prevent the conflict.
"This policy is the sure path to a war in which Turkey will have the initiative. And the one who has the initiative believes that he also has the advantages," he warned.
"The scene is set for a heated episode"
He made particular reference to the new Turkish NAVTEX and the presence of the research vessel R/V TÜBİTAK MARMARA in the Aegean region. He assessed that the Turkish movements, combined with the developments south of Kasos and the plans for submarine cables, are gradually shaping a dangerous scenario.
"All of this leads us to the possibility of a heated episode. We hope it doesn't develop that way, but the movements point in that direction," he said.
Mr. Baltzoi also claimed that Turkey has already passed a fiber optic cable from Libya to Turkey through the wider Kasos area, citing the illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum.
At the same time, he noted, Ankara is demanding that Greece or France seek official permission for similar projects. In his assessment, Turkey's goal is to use such a Greek action as a precedent in order to strengthen its claims in the future.
"We must not give in under any circumstances. Turkey wants an official request from a state entity so that it can invoke it in the future," he stressed.
He added that Greece must utilize all the means provided to it by International Law to defend its sovereignty and sovereign rights, arguing that, under specific conditions, these even include the use of military force.
"A leap into the future, the Shield of Achilles"
Concluding his intervention, Ioannis Baltzoi described the "Achilles Shield" as a real "leap into the future" for Greek defense.
As he explained, this is a multi-layered defense network, which will connect anti-aircraft, anti-missile and anti-drone systems with ships, aircraft, ground-based radars and units of the Armed Forces.
The system's software will be able to analyze and classify incoming threats, determine which is the most serious and indicate the most appropriate weapon to deal with it.
He warned, however, that the three-year timeline requires intensive work, coordination and immediate mobilization.
"We need to start running today. It takes a lot of work and, of course, we will also have Turkey facing us, which will try to stop us," he concluded.
Source: https://geopolitico.gr/2026/09/baltzois-i-tourkia-tha-kanei-polemo-an-krinei-oti-ti-symferei/
photo Greek News FL
