by Yannos Charalambidis
Eastern Mediterranean EEZ Games Touching the Interconnector – EU and US Embarrassed, Trackers and Hands Up Athens and Nicosia Watch Turkey Build New Turkish Empire
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan adopts and puts into practice various strategies to achieve his goals, including that of the spider. It sets up webs and, after trapping its victims, either strangles them or threatens to finish them off. Under these circumstances, he has already created the conditions to strangle any attempt at a solution of the Cyprus problem or to achieve what he seeks, trapping both Athens and Nicosia in his own spider's webs.
How Turkey spreads from the Balkans to Africa and China
Friendship or Lycophilia between Sisi – Erdogan
Why a "Turkish solution" does not benefit Egypt and Israel
Three Turkish moves
Recently, Turkey has made three main moves:
- The country's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, went to Brussels, to the informal meeting of the EU, with the consent of Athens and Nicosia, to cleanse himself of his sins as an invader. And not only. Turkey: A) Claimed and still claims its full membership in the EU. In this way, it wanted to send the message that the upgraded customs union cannot be an alternative option. And it seeks full integration, because in this way it expects to become the biggest power in the EU, since with its size and above all its power coefficients and institutionally and otherwise, it will surpass even this Germany. So, with these moves he creates strategic depth, to facilitate the abolition of visas for Turkish citizens and the upgraded customs union. B) It demands the recognition of the pseudo-state, dissolution of the Republic of Cyprus and disconnection of the Cypriots from the Turkish accession process and Cypriot obligations, instead of recognizing the Republic of Cyprus as part of the acquis, because this is determined by the Counter-Declaration of September 21, 2005. In addition to the UN, it also sets the rules of the game for the talks by living within the EU, promoting equal sovereignty, which stems from the political equality of the two constituent states of a federation, and refers, at the same time, to the two states. The federal spider's web with a Turkish character traps the solution process, even a tripartite one in Turkish dichotomous positions as a previous stage of full Turkification.
- After Fidan's trip to Brussels, Turkey officially requested to join the BRICs (Brasil, Russia, India, China and then South Africa), which constitutes a compensating bloc of large states against the EU and the USA. What is the blackmailing Turkish message to the EU, mainly, but also to the USA? There are orange trees elsewhere that make oranges. And it is because of this that another classical policy of Ankara is imprinted, beyond that of the spider. This is the Pendulum Policy. Turkey sometimes moves towards Moscow and sometimes towards Washington, sometimes towards the EU and the USA and sometimes towards the BRICs, depending on its interests, and blackmails. It is setting up webs in Asia, not only through the BRICs, of which it is not yet a member, but also through the Turkic states that reach as far as China.
- Last week, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Turkey. Erdoğan's former enemy is turning into a friend. And one weaves the praise of the other into a relationship of lycophilia, which, however, is used by the Turkish President. How; In the following way: A) By being purged by the EU, he now achieves a second one, through Sisi, who cleans Erdogan's dirty hands, because he accepts both him and his country, as said, a factor by which he can to build stability and peace in the region. In support of this, Egypt supports Turkey's efforts to reconcile with Assad in Syria. But no allusion is made to ending the occupation of Syrian territory by the Turkish army. He only raises the question of the withdrawal of foreign troops from Libya, because that is where his interests lie, and he forgets about the occupation of Cyprus, so as not to spoil things with the Turkish President, who leaves Sisi's nail for his army in Libya to the river takes it. Because it has other more important issues, such as the 15 billion dollars in trade transactions, the expected sale of drones to Egypt and its detachment from its relationship with Cyprus and Greece, in the context of its energy policies and the determination of the EEZ. B) By accepting the leadership role in Turkey in the issue of the Palestinians and in general in the Muslim world. Sisi understands the appeal that Erdogan has with his stance in the Islamic world and among the Sunnis and does not want to allow this relationship to become monopolistic and pass to African countries, where Egypt has interests, but Erdogan has has already set up its own web of interests, selling military equipment, from vehicles to drones. Plus the fact that it has military bases like the one in Somalia.
From the Balkans to Africa... and Egypt
The webs of the Turkish spider have already passed through the Balkans, from the bases in Albania to the involvement in Kosovo, in Skopje, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the Turkish minority of Bulgaria and reach Cyprus, Syria, Palestine and Africa. Turkey draws a vertical line from Albania to Libya, and since it controls the Eastern Mediterranean through Cyprus, it expands the Turkish lake, which originally stretched from Marmaris to Alexandretta and elsewhere. From Libya to Suez and beyond.
What game does Turkey want to play with Egypt? To overturn what Greece and Cyprus are entitled to based on the International Law of the Sea. And to expand the imaginary zone of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum throughout the Eastern Mediterranean, cutting off Cyprus from Greece and transferring the main weight of the geopolitical game to the line Crete, Karpathos (Kassos) Rhodes, which constitute the gates of the eastern Aegean. This is Turkey's one strategic move. The other is the closing of the gate through the Dardanelles, and the third is the demilitarization of the Aegean islands, which refers to the tragic case in which the Greek Division left Cyprus in 67 and the island turned into a wasteland in its hands Turkey. Turkish control of the gates of the Aegean will bring suffocation and its downfall, which will be easy if combined with the demilitarization of the Aegean islands. Why? Because the first line of defense will move from the islands to the mainland and Turkey will very easily bisect the Aegean at the 25th Meridian. But if Cyprus falls, through a solution, federation or confederation, then Egypt and Israel will also be at a disadvantage, since Turkey will speak from a position of strength.
The "opportunity" of the "solution"...
How, then, is there talk of an opportunity in the Cyprus problem, when: 1) The so-called solution will be dichotomous, regardless of whether they call it a federation of two constituent states with political equality. The fact that Turkey stepped into this form of arrangement to claim equal sovereignty with two states can in no way sanctify the previous federal formula of the two constituent states with political equality. 2) Turkey has succeeded with our consent to purge itself through the EU and use our friend Egypt to emerge as a factor of "stability and peace". 3) In Turkey's moves towards the BRICs, the EU and the US appear embarrassed. Who, then, will pressure Turkey and why, if they press for tripartite talks on the Cyprus issue? The US, the EU, Russia or China?
Three antidotes via EU
Instead of appeasement towards Turkey, which is a policy that either leads to a new impasse or to the acceptance of the dissolution of the Cypriot state, Athens and Nicosia could start anew their policy on the basis of the following strategic moves:
- Connecting the Russian invasion with Turkey's invasion of Cyprus and the continued occupation.
- The activation of the conclusions of 2019 for the imposition of sanctions if Ankara continues to occupy the Republic of Cyprus and does not recognize it and does not begin the withdrawal of Attila.
- The submission of a request to the EU and especially to the member states for the military support of the Republic of Cyprus, as a member state, which is a victim of invasion and permanent occupation. This includes the following: A) Inclusion in the Council's conclusions that any new aggressive action by Turkey against Cyprus or Greece will automatically trigger Article 42,7 of the Treaties, which provides for the military support of EU member states. similar is currently happening in practice with Ukraine, even though it is not a member state like Cyprus. Such a decision constitutes a clear diplomatic deterrent, relevant to security in the Eastern Mediterranean. B) The imposition of an embargo on military equipment to Turkey while it occupies Cyprus. C) The sale and granting of military equipment to the Republic of Cyprus by the member states for its security and to prevent and counter the Turkish threat on the basis of the right of self-defense (Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations). Like, that is, what happened with Ukraine.
And let Athens and Nicosia not claim that this cannot be done. Because, well, they are happening with Ukraine and elsewhere. Such as the Baltic countries or Finland. Simply, the easy "solution" is to unilaterally blame the EU without claiming. After all, when were these our official positions on strategic planning? Stuck on plan A, we are trapped in the web of the "Turkish tarantula", waiting for the final fatal bite, refusing to see plan B. The alternative option, a glimpse of which is captured above…
Image from https://simerini.sigmalive.com/
This map shows: 1. The Greek (light blue) and Turkish potential EEZ (crimson). 2. The black line between two dots records the points from which the Turkish-Libyan monument extends, which is not defined in maritime space. The area, which is sometimes shown on maps, and joins the coasts of Libya and Turkey at the height of Rhodes, is not precise. 3. Points A, B, C, D, E constitute the line on which the EEZ between Greece and Egypt was partially established. 4. The red line reflects what Ankara wants to claim as an EEZ, removing whatever rights the Greek islands and Cyprus have. 5. Right of 28th and 26th Noon EEZs were not determined. The OAZ was partially defined. In order for any agreement between Egypt and other states to proceed, you see, Turkey needs to consult with Greece as well.
Image from https://simerini.sigmalive.com/
This is a map showing the boundaries of the EEZs of Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Egypt and other states based on the International Law of the Sea.
Image from https://simerini.sigmalive.com/
The map depicts with a green diagram the Egyptian EEZ as it results from the agreement with Greece.
Image from https://simerini.sigmalive.com/
Turkey seeks to succeed in the Cypriot and Greek EEZ, if it succeeds in bringing Egypt with its waters. It wants 41% of the Cypriot EEZ for itself and offers 17% to Egypt. At the same time, he believes that Greece should lose about 16% of its EEZ. Of this percentage, Turkey receives 14% and Egypt 2%.
The map shows the route of the electric cable from Cyprus to Greece. It is obvious that its path passes through areas, which Turkey calls into question, and especially through the area of Crete, where the supposed site of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum also exists. There is talk of external threats, that is Turkey, which someone will have to ensure. And on top of that are added the issues of sustainability and profitability, in the sense that no one invests at a loss. On the other hand, no one can dispute the geopolitical importance of such a project. But the question is how this geopolitical importance will be exploited. Because, since the Cyprus problem is - among others - a geopolitical problem, if a "solution", such as the one they are preparing to discuss, leaves Cyprus in the hands of Turkey, then it is Turkey that will control the region in the context of the Blue homeland and that it is he who will reap the benefits either through Cyprus or in various other ways. So, when talking about the geopolitical importance of the project, it should be related to the policy of Athens and Nicosia towards Turkey. And, therefore, any benefits will be used as tools of sustainable solution, not division.
*Dr of International Relations
