By Doug Rooney*
US President Trump has made no secret of his indignation over the Europeans' non-participation in the war against Iran and is threatening to remove American security from Europe...
Europe achieved the rather remarkable feat of defeating the US-Iran war, despite not officially participating. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the war will impose a burden on the European economy " as heavy as what we experienced recently during the Covid pandemic or at the beginning of the war in Ukraine ».
The collapse of two myths
EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen advised Europeans to reduce their use of public transport to save fuel. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, he warned that the effects " it will probably be over with a sticker this which is we can to imagine she the dot ». The very real possibility stagflation looms over the economy, as projected growth figures plummet and fuel the increasing number of protests.
Europe is once again sinking into an economic and political crisis, and this time it may not be able to find a way out.
At first glance, Europe seems to be in a better position than most other countries to withstand the economic storm caused by American and Israeli actions in the Middle East: while a significant amount of its fertilizers come from the region, only 6% of its crude oil and less than 10% of its natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Asian markets, which receive up to 80% of their supply from the Gulf, are simply outbidding Europe for the remaining supply. The emerging economic crisis therefore symbolizes Europe's declining influence in the global economy.
However, more than just an economic shock, this moment represents an existential crisis for Europe's image and place in the world. The previous war had already shattered two of the most persistent myths in Europe after World War II: that the United States would guarantee the security of Europeans and that this security was offered for purely altruistic reasons…
Americans are not invincible.
The Iranians are not the first to undermine the American Empire's will to fight.
From Korea and Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq, the histories of the Cold War and the Global War on Terror are filled with battlefields that Americans were forced to abandon in the face of fierce resistance...
The Trump administration came to power believing this liberal propaganda and, therefore, assuming that abandoning all « awakened » military doctrines would guarantee an easy victory, he took off the gloves very publicly. On social media and at a press conference, Trump and his officials announced that Iran would be sent back in the Stone Age , that he was one war without mercy and that American military power will put an end to Iranian civilization . Donald Trump has unleashed the full force of the American war machine on Iran, assassinating its leaders, destroying its infrastructure, and slaughtering civilians. But Iran is still standing. The myth of American military supremacy has thus collapsed.
Control in all areas
The reason why a historic humiliation of American power is so devastating for Europe may be hard to understand if you’re not European, but it comes down to something called the American security umbrella. During the Cold War, much of Europe outsourced its security to the American military-industrial complex. To put it simply, with the United States shouldering much of the continent’s security responsibility, this gave Europe the time and resources to focus on building its much-vaunted social democratic welfare states (or so we told ourselves). What the Americans won from the agreement was never clearly stated, because what they received in return it was control of the European continent in all areas that mattered.
Learning, as we recently did, that the American security infrastructure is unfit for 21st century warfare was bad enough, but seeing the United States to abandon the Gulf states (a region that benefits from the same security umbrella) their luck as soon as things got complicated must have sent European leaders into a tizzy.
The worst was yet to come, because, unable to bring about an adequate resolution to the conflict with Iran, Trump turned once again to an easier and more flexible target: Europe.
He has already hinted that he holds Europe responsible for the American humiliation in the Strait of Hormuz. He argued, during a chatty press conference , that " they [Europe] should own it [the Strait of Hormuz] and love it. They could do it so easily. We will be useful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil on which they depend so much ". Later, Trump said in an interview : " They weren't friends when we needed them... we never asked them for much... it's a one-way street Throughout the war, Trump also made little effort to hide his deep dissatisfaction with European leaders and threatened to withdraw American security guarantees from the continent altogether.
«"There is a deep ideological reluctance among the current generation of European leaders to take the necessary steps to chart a truly independent course from the US.".
Now, as it becomes increasingly clear that the easy victories Trump likes will not happen in the Middle East, Washington is turning its attention to Greenland, with Trump to declare to Truth Social : “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED IT AND IT WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN… REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, BADLY DIVIDED PIECE OF ICE!!! "NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described these developments rather succinctly" disappointing ».
Plans are being drawn up to build European independence – the EU plan “ Europe's Equipment / Preparation 2030 » aims to mobilise €800 billion by the end of the decade. However, the continent is starting with a seriously degraded military capability (the British army, for example, currently has more horses than chariots ) and a truly independent rearmament policy would require an industrial base that decades of relocation have largely destroyed .
Despite the changing psychology at the grassroots level ( a recent poll found that ordinary citizens see the US as one of the biggest threats to Europe), there is a deep ideological reluctance among the current generation of European leaders to take the necessary steps to chart a truly independent course. When, for example, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever called for the smoothing relations with Russia to regain access to cheap energy, has been sharply criticized by figures in the EU and his own government. For Europeans to become a pole in the emerging multipolar world (or even simply to ensure their independence from an increasingly predatory United States), they will need both the means and the will to do so. At present, they lack both.
For those with eyes to see the American military and insurance presence on the continent, it has always been about an insidious need for control rather than a benevolent desire to protect European social democracy (read, as a historical example, Operation Gladio during the Cold War). But, pretending to consult their supposed allies and occasionally allowing symbolic dissent, the previous US presidents always gave European elites what they needed to legitimize the process in the eyes of their own people – that is, they offered Europe a reasonable possibility of refusal.
Trump, by making clear the nature of American Empire and setting his sights on Greenland, ensured that even the most dedicated European Atlanticist could no longer plausibly maintain the myth of American benevolence. And yet, despite all this, European elites seem psychologically incapable to consider a serious break with the United States.
The war in Iran has weakened Europe economically, but, perhaps more importantly, it has wounded America politically. And a wounded predator, sensing death, is far more dangerous. Europe, so close and so weak, is an increasingly tempting target for American prey.
Long accustomed to seeing themselves as the pinnacle of human civilization, the nations of Europe, subject to American power, will be transformed from subjects of history into objects. They cannot act, only act. After centuries of colonialism and decades of aiding and abetting American imperialism, they are unlikely to inspire much sympathy in the emerging centers of power in the Global South as Europeans slowly awaken to their new reality.
*Scottish Christian socialist living in Beijing. Lecturer at the capital's University of Economics and Management.
Source https://www.anixneuseis.gr
