of Theodoros Atmatzidis, Lieutenant General (ret.)
SUMMARY
The emerging geopolitical convergence between Israel and Somaliland is part of a broader strategic balancing act in the Red Sea. The region is emerging as a critical hub for maritime security and could play a decisive role in a potential escalation between the United States and Iran.
- Introduction: The Red Sea as a Unified Geostrategic Space
The Red Sea and Horn of Africa region constitutes a single geostrategic system, where vital interests of regional and global powers intersect. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the most important shipping corridors in the world, through which approximately 10–12% of global trade passes (World Bank 2019).
The importance of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) has been enhanced due to:
- of energy interdependence
- the vulnerability of maritime networks
- the increasing militarization of the region
- Somaliland as an Emerging Strategic Hub
Somaliland, despite limited international recognition, is gaining increasing strategic importance due to its geographical location and the development of the port of Berbera.
According to analyses by the Clingendael Institute (2018), the region functions as:
- trade flow hub
- possible base for military projection of power
- point of competition between Gulf states, Turkey and China
DP World's investment in Berbera confirms the region's transition from a peripheral region to a geo-economic hub (Financial Times 2020).
- Regional Power Competition: The Case of Turkey
Turkey has established its presence in Somalia through a comprehensive strategy that combines:
- military force (based in Mogadishu)
- development aid
- political influence
This approach is interpreted within the context of the neo-Ottoman strategic doctrine and the pursuit of regional autonomy (Lindenstrauss & Korteweg 2021).
Israel's possible entry into Somaliland could create a bipolar competition of influence in the Horn of Africa.
4: The Israeli balancing strategy
Of particular importance is Israel's recent decision to proceed with the recognition of Somaliland, a development which, if consolidated at a diplomatic and operational level, constitutes a qualitative upgrade of the Israeli presence in the Horn of Africa.
This move can be interpreted as part of a broader strategy:
- geopolitical penetration into non-traditional theaters,
- control of critical maritime chokepoints,
- and preventive balancing against competitive actors, such as Turkey and Iran.
At the level of strategic studies, recognition is part of a logic forward presence and extended deterrence, as it potentially provides Israel with:
- access to logistics infrastructure near Bab el-Mandeb,
- surveillance capabilities for sea lines of communication (SLOCs),
- and strengthening operational connectivity with United States allies.
At the same time, this development may accelerate the formation of a of a new Red Sea–Eastern Mediterranean security axis, in which Israel seeks to play the role of a pillar of stability but also an active geopolitical shaper.
However, this move also carries risks of escalation, as it may provoke reactions from states that oppose unilateral recognitions or seek competitive influence in the region, thus intensifying the fluidity of the regional system.
- The Strategic Dimension of a Possible US-Iran Conflict
The possibility of escalation between the United States and Iran makes the region operationally critical.
5.1 Naval Control and Strategic Deterrence
The Red Sea would be a key theater for:
- sea denial operations
- protection of trade flows
- display of naval power
According to RAND Corporation (2021), controlling chokepoints such as Bab el-Mandeb is a critical factor in strategic deterrence.
5.2 Iran's Asymmetric Strategy
Iran relies on:
- proxy networks (e.g. Houthis in Yemen)
- low-intensity, high-impact attacks
- hybrid warfare
(IISS, military balance, 2023)
Extending this strategy to the Red Sea could disrupt global shipping.
5.3 The Role of Somaliland in the Operational Environment
Somaliland may function as:
- ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) node
- logistics base
- maritime traffic control point
Israel's possible presence would enhance interoperability with American forces.
- Conclusions and Strategic Options for Greece
The Red Sea and Horn of Africa region is evolving into a pivotal geopolitical system of high strategic importance, where the interests of regional and major powers intersect. The possible convergence between Israel and Somaliland reinforces the logic of the balance of power and directly affects the security of maritime lines of communication.
In light of a potential conflict between the United States and Iran, the region is becoming a critical theater of operations, with direct implications for the global economy and energy security.
6.1 The Geostrategic Position of Greece
Greece, as a member state of the European Union and NATO, as well as a global maritime power, has a direct interest in ensuring stability in the sea lanes connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea.
The dependence of the Greek-owned fleet on these specific sea lanes makes freedom of navigation not just a strategic priority, but matter of national economic interest.
6.2 Strategic Stance: Multi-Level Balancing
The Greek strategy should move along three main axes:
a. Strengthening Alliances
Deepening cooperation with Israel, but also with Arab states participating in the new regional security architectures, can strengthen Greece's role as a pillar of stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.
b. Naval Presence and Seaway Security
Participation in international surveillance and security missions in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden would enhance:
- business experience
- the strategic projection of power
- the protection of Greek shipping interests
c. Diplomatic Balance and Strategic Autonomy
Greece must maintain a balance between its Western identity and the need for functional channels of communication with regional actors in the Middle East.
6.3 Greece as a Mediterranean-Indo-Pacific Interconnection Hub
Greece's geographical location allows it to function as:
- energy and trade hub
- mediator between Europe and the Middle East
- strategic partner in new multilateral arrangements
Capitalizing on this position requires coordination between diplomacy, defense, and economic policy.
6.4 Overall Assessment
The emerging geopolitical reality makes it clear that the security of the Eastern Mediterranean is inextricably linked to developments in the Red Sea.
Bibliography (Chicago Style)
- Bryden, Matt. Somaliland: Time for African Union LeadershipChatham House.
- Clingendael Institute. The Horn of Africa: Strategic Competition and the Gulf States, 2018.
- International Crisis Group. Red Sea Rivalries, 2018.
- RAND Corporation. Security Dynamics in the Red Sea Region, 2021.
- World Bank. The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, 2019.
- Brookings Institution. Israel-UAE-India Strategic Cooperation, 2022.
- International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The Military Balance 2023.
- U.S. Department of State. The Abraham Accords Declaration, 2020.
- Lindenstrauss, Gallia, and Rem Korteweg (eds.). The Eastern Mediterranean in Transition.German Marshall Fund.
- Financial Times. Analysis on the port of Berbera and DP World.
- International Crisis Group. New Alignments in the Red Sea Region, 2024.
- Reuters / Al Jazeera. Reports on the Israeli approach to Somaliland (2024–2025).
source – photos
main photo: tetracarbon, https://pixabay.com
