The prospect of peace in the Middle East is returning to the international scene through a complex process of plans, political compromises and strategic reshuffles. The recent 20-point plan, presented as an evolution of earlier initiatives, seems to have garnered the support of all Arab states, Europe and the Palestinian Authority. The only exception is Hamas, which is now politically and strategically isolated.
Hamas's isolation and its dilemmas.
As Mr. Baltzoi said, Hamas is called upon to make a historic decision: either it will hand over its weapons to join the new transitional administration framework for Gaza, or it will withdraw from the region, seeking refuge in states that will accept its cadres. Its once steadfast supporter, Qatar, has come out in favor of the plan, leaving Hamas without the absolute shield it had in the past.
Its choice, therefore, is not unlimited. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel is determined to complete its work, even unilaterally, if Hamas rejects the agreement.
The key figures of the project.
The new plan not only bears the signature of the leaders, but also the contribution of important actors behind the scenes:
- Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's "multi-tool", with influence in both the Middle East and Russia.
- Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, who remained an invisible but strategic shaper.
- Tony Blair, who introduced the framework of administration by Palestinian technocrats, in order to create a functional administrative framework.
The synthesis of their ideas led to the formulation of the final 20-point plan, which appears to create a commonly accepted vision, Mr. Baltzoi added.
From the ruins to the "favorable area".
Gaza is currently described as a “space of rubble”, where human life is almost impossible. The plan promises radical reconstruction and the creation of a “law-governed area”, with prospects for economic development and social stability. Prosperity is considered the key that can mitigate hatred and prevent the reproduction of violence, which in the past resembled a “Lernaean Hydra”, explained Mr. Baltzoi.
The weight of History and pain.
However, the discussion does not ignore the trauma. The carnage and destruction of recent decades have left behind a legacy of pain. After October 7, many Israelis experienced the events as a “second Holocaust,” while Palestinians suffer from years of loss, exclusion and violence, Mr. Baltzoi stressed.
An Israeli philosopher had formulated the paradox: “Peace will only come when both peoples suffer greatly.” Today, it seems that circumstances have matured to confirm this harsh saying.
Realism or delusion?
The 20-point plan is ambitious. However, the history of the region is full of failed peace efforts. The risk that new armed organizations will emerge to replace Hamas is not negligible. Hatred, as it is pointed out, does not disappear easily.
Peace, if it comes, will require not only agreements and foreign mediators, but also profound social and economic change. The question is whether Gaza can truly transform from a “field of ruins” into a model of development, offering the people of the region the incentive to leave the war behind.
Baltzoi Ioannis: The new "peace equation" in the Middle East – Realism or wishful thinking?
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photo by ErikaWittlieb, https://pixabay.com
