With the count reaching 99,59% on the morning of Monday, May 22, it appears that the map characterizing the 2023 national election and its outcome is shaping up like this…
An undeniable and sweeping trend, one might say, brings New Democracy to stand out by more than 20 points from the second party, which is SYRIZA. Despite all this, it is expected that we will be led to a second round of elections, on June 25, with the system of enhanced proportionality, even though the possibility of creating self-reliance by the New Democracy was obvious.
The result is that 58 of the 59 Regions of Greece put New Democracy in first place.
The largest difference from SYRIZA was recorded by ND in Laconia, the Dodecanese, the Cyclades, Piraeus (A), Chios, Evrytania, Serres, Fokida, Kastoria, Karditsa... Despite all this, we also have the only Region that made the difference, and highlighted SYRIZA first, and it is the Rhodope Region (33,19%). The immediate next regions in which SYRIZA emerged (although second party) were Arta, Xanthi, Achaia, Aitoloakarnania, Kefallonia, Florina...
PASOK KINAL, on the other hand, seems to be strengthening, as is the KKE. The fifth party that seems to enter the -five-party- Parliament this time, is the Hellenic Solution, while MERA25 is left out.
There are three points on which we should focus after yesterday's special day:
First, the sweeping approval of New Democracy at the ballot box. Second, the defeat of the second party and Third, the large percentage of abstentions, which is a factor that cannot be ignored.
As Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself stated last night, "New Democracy has the approval of the citizens to govern independently and strongly", in statements he made when the great difference between the first and the second party was already known. Of course, the first statements of K. Mitsotakis concerned better wages, more jobs, better public health, fewer inequalities, a strong Greece. These slogans were the first victory celebration, but Greece, through the mouth of K. Mitsotakis, is again led to the polls on the 25η June, following the "political earthquake" - as he described the result of the elections of 21th May.
The reaction of Alexis Tsipras, on the other hand, was as expected: "Games have victories and defeats." The leader of SYRIZA congratulated Kyriakos Mitsotakis on his victory, acknowledging in his statements that "the result was extremely negative for SYRIZA". What is expected to happen within the opposition now, and in view of the new battle on the 25thth June, is the evaluation of the result, so that the party can be led with new forces into the new elections. If there is room for change in SYRIZA's moves, they should be made now, as there is no room to wait.
And we come to abstinence. About 40% of the people have decided to turn their backs on the "system of the electoral process", a fact that can be translated into a lack of trust, indifference, political fatigue... The point is that abstention shapes the result, just like participation. Florina, Kefalonia, Laconia, Evrytania, Lesvos, Arcadia and Samos came in the first positions of the abstinence scale (from 62,47% to 50,12%).
And from what it seems, the second round of the elections will have to struggle more to convince the inactive Greeks to make decisions, rather than the participants to re-decide. No one can guess right now what the election result would be if 40% of absentee voters decided to participate in the election, and no one knows what that percentage will be in the next June election either.
For the time being, what has left most speechless, was the emphasis of blue on the map of Greece, despite the opinion polls, one day after the elections.
How the Natives voted
Abstention among the Greeks of Omogenia, who were called to vote on Saturday, May 20, reached 20%, and the average results of participation are as follows: ND 44,22% - SYRIZA 18,47% - KKE 10,56% – DAY25 10,25%, PASOK KINAL 6,66%.
According to the information of APE-MPE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the U.A.E. they gave 70% to ND, Qatar gave 61,39%, as it took first in many other countries, while SYRIZA came first in Sweden, Spain and Portugal.
We should emphasize that "the distance" from the respective polling station was the most frequent excuse for abstaining, but in this case it was not a "simple excuse", since there were cases when expatriates had to travel up to 100 km to vote, or -in the case of Israel- to change their country (and vote in Egypt)! Expats from Venezuela had to vote in Texas, while expats living in China and Japan had to vote in Seoul!
Another reason for the abstention was the new regulations, which left a large number of expatriates out of the acceptance criteria, leading a number of Greeks to demonstrate outside the embassy on Saturday on the subject of the restrictive regulations (Berlin).
In any case, the Ministry of the Interior declared the results of the Nationality as a whole and out of a total of 22.857 just registered in the electoral rolls abroad as follows: 18.203 voted, 4.654 abstained, so the participation rate was 79,6%.
Until the June 25 elections, we will translate the future of Greece into numbers and percentages, from the facts, since each side, each faction, each party, is expected to do serious introspection.
The question is whether the 40% of inactive Greeks will manage to do the required introspection, so that we can reach a result, which - if nothing else - will not leave us with the question "what would happen if..."?
photo: macroart, Image license by freepik.com
