Turkey's enormous fear comes from the moral burden of having conquered lands that were always inhabited mainly by Greeks and other peoples, and later the Byzantine Empire which continued as the cradle of Greek civilization. This fear grows after the genocides it has done to the local populations. And the fear will grow as he loses control of the strategic points that could protect the Marmara region. The more strategic points it loses, the more likely it is to lose the Marmara region in the future, and the more likely it is to be confined to mountainous and barren Anatolia.
The region of Marmara from the time of ancient Greece, later the Byzantine Empire, and the Ottoman Empire, was one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Sea of Marmara is large, calm and navigable, making transport and trade throughout the region incredibly efficient. This natural advantage has turned Marmaras into an important natural port, flanked by the narrows of the Bosphorus to the north and the Dardanelles to the south. These features facilitate the rapid sea transport of goods produced in the region to global markets. The region's location between some of the world's most profitable trade routes has historically made it a global hub for trade and a bone of contention. The Bosphorus, Marmaras and Dardanelles offer the only navigable sea route from the Black Sea to the world's oceans, which is enhanced by major European rivers such as the Danube, Dnieper, Dniester, etc. flowing into the Black Sea and carrying the goods of the countries they penetrate. This geographical reality historically channeled exports from Europe and the Black Sea coast through the Marmara region. Additionally, the easiest overland trade route between South Asia and Europe historically passed through Marmara, further enhancing its strategic importance.
Even in 2023, the Marmara region remains central to modern Turkey, inhabited by approximately 27 million people, almost a third of the total Turkish population. The region accounts for 75% of Turkey's GDP, with a very high GDP per capita, significantly higher than the national average and exceeding that of most European countries.
To protect this precious area, rulers have historically tried to expand the borders by creating buffer zones on land or at sea. The optimal defense strategy for Marmaras includes a strong navy to guard the Bosphorus and Dardanelles and project power into the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. On land, the extension of the border across Anatolia to the southeast is beneficial, as the region acts as a barrier against threats from the Middle East and northwest.
Control of strategic points such as the Bessarabian Gap and the Iron Gates is vital. The Bessarabian Gap, a narrow, flat area between the Black Sea and the Carpathian Mountains, provides access to the vast Eurasian steppe, necessitating influence in this region to defend against threats from the east. The Iron Gates, a narrow gorge carved by the Danube River between the Carpathians and the Balkans, provide a passage to Marmara from Central Europe. Control of these points, together with naval superiority and control of Anatolia, ensured the security of the respective conquerors of the region and today of the Turks.
The conquest of the region by the Ottomans kept them alive for many centuries. However, by 1923, Turkey had lost control over these strategic areas except Anatolia. Upon the collapse of the Ottoman Empire the European part of Marmara and a part of Asia Minor according to the Great Powers, would return to Greece and the straits would be under international control. The Turks succeeded in overturning this plan with the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923.
The new Turkey began a campaign of transformation that sought to Turkify and Islamize what was left of the country's territory, which involved either removing or assimilating anyone left behind. These kinds of transformative policies and actions led to the genocide of 1,5 million Armenians and the genocide and uprooting of Greeks from the lands they inhabited for over 3 millennia.
For NATO Turkey was considered an invaluable geographical advantage with its control of the straits as they were able to contain the Soviet fleet within the Black Sea. Such strategically important straits, the world community must have them under its control and not in the hands of conquerors under the control of extortionate authoritarian governments.
The Turks dream of controlling the Aegean because they fear the extension of Greek territorial waters to 12 miles. The extension to 12 miles combined with the bypass of the straits from Alexandroupoli reduces the strategic importance of the straits because for the first time in history goods from the Black Sea can bypass the Marmara region by road and rail. Also at the exit from the straits you will be able to exercise control from Greece in case Turkey allows some ships to cross the straits.
The Turks, fearing that their Mediterranean coast would be further encroached upon by Greece when Cyprus was united with Greece, invaded Cyprus in 1974. This is why the liberation of Cyprus is of the utmost importance to Greece and the West as it further weakens the Turkey.
Today, a century later, after the violent Turkification of the natives, massacres and genocides, the only significant ethnic minority remaining within Turkey after its foundation are the Kurds in the southeast of the country. Their territories spanned the newly formed countries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and also Iran for decades.
In 1946 Stalin demanded that Turkey agree to a new joint Turkish-Soviet administration of the Straits with a permanent military presence there along with the Turks to replace the 1936 Convention. After Turkey refused this idea, the crisis escalated further. and the Soviets then began to press the Turks for a series of territorial claims in Far Eastern Turkey based on the Soviet Union's historical claims to the former Russian Empire. He further advanced claims by the Soviet republics of Georgia and Armenia based on the land that the World War I-era allies had promised to give to Armenia during the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres and then tried to destabilize Turkey even more.
The Soviets also began to covertly support and influence several Kurdish separatist groups operating in southeastern Turkey, contributing to the later Kurdish separatist group the PKK,
The US in 1991 allowed the Iraqi masses to gain effective autonomy from the government in Baghdad and established the KRG Kurdish Regional Government the following year in 1992, creating the first part of the Kurdish-populated Middle East (spanning across Iraq, the Turkey, Syria and Iran) to truly achieve autonomy.
The Euphrates and Tigris rivers originate in Turkey's Kurdish region through which Turkey exerts influence in Syria and Iraq. In this area there are hydroelectric dams which produce 30% of the energy consumed by Turkey. The independence of Turkey's Kurds and their amalgamation with the already autonomous Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq would create a strong Kurdish state that would control the electric dams and river geopolitics, completely weakening Turkey's ability to defend itself. the safety of the Marmara region.
The European Union is not behaving positively towards Turkey. With its wide-ranging reports it stigmatizes Turkey for war crimes and abuses, fighting the ongoing PKK insurgency in southeastern Turkey and the ongoing state program of Kurdish assimilation, the ongoing illegal occupation of Northern Cyprus which after 2004 turned into an illegal occupation of territory of the EU, the continued denial of the Armenian Genocide, Turkey's continued maritime claims against Greece and threats of war.
Its further exclusion from an energy hub for the transfer of Mediterranean energy (EastMed etc.) to Europe, will reduce its already role in supplying 3% of Europe from Azerbaijan's energy.
With tumultuous revolutions and civil wars breaking out in Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Libya, it was a great opportunity for the Turks to sway events in their favor, but unfortunately almost as always they continued to support the losing side. In Egypt, for example, Erdogan enthusiastically supported the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and their candidate Mohamed Morsi to the presidency in 2012.
Turkey's constant provocations and its attempts to revive outdated and paranoid Ottoman dreams are turning more and more states and especially its neighbors against it. The gradual loss of the strategic points guarding the Marmara region will mean the end of Turkey and its confinement to the depths of Anatolia and the control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits by international powers.
