The elections in Turkey are over and the big winner for 13η time is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, invincible, longest-lived and all-powerful. We should emphasize here that whoever was elected to the leadership of Turkey, the High Strategy of the country would remain the same, with the same or even increased geostrategic aspirations. Turkey will remain a revisionist, aggressive country, fully embracing his theory Living Space (Living Space), which Hitler also adopted. Those who think that Turkey would become another state, with democratic ideals, freedom of expression and all the goods of a privileged democratic state, if its leadership were to change and be accepted in the European family, are probably ethereal and do not see things realistically.
Erdogan and the West
The West keeps making the same mistakes. It measures and judges Turkey by Western standards and Western assessment models that have no value for Turkey and thus make wrong assessments. Turkey is not its Asia Minor shores, where most people share roughly the same principles and values as the West to a large extent. It is also the great Anatolia, with the Turkish masses still in the 20thο century, decades ago. The Turkish president, who has been at the helm of the country for 21 years, invincible and unrepeatable, maintains his power from this large mass of people, who are self-centered and look for their "messianic" leader to follow him. Erdogan knows it and shows it in various ways. The scenes showing Erdoğan handing out tea to the world, or giving pocket money to the little ones, like a grandfather to his grandchildren, or singing on stage, if they happened in the West, this leader would immediately become graphic and be done with. And yet Turkey is not the West, it is the East. Thus, the vast majority of Anatolian Turks consider Erdogan their "dad", who takes care of his family. He is one of them, an oriental, he is not ashamed, he shows it. When Erdoğan speaks to his people, his blousy face softens, he looks into their eyes, smiles, promises them Ottoman greatness and Turkey's dominance over the entire region. He tells them of their glorious history, that they had arrived and promises them that they will once again become an imperial power. Be patient, he tells them. We have financial difficulties, but we will overcome them. We build airplanes, missile systems, tanks, ships, we build a nuclear power plant, he says. We have bases in the Caucasus, the Balkans, Africa, the Middle East. We are a world power and we will become an empire.
The USA suffers and continues to suffer from the Iran syndrome, when due to their wrong policy they lost this great country and since then it is their main enemy in the Middle East. And they don't want to give the great geopolitical value of Turkey to Russia and China, which are now the two rival countries in the hegemonic tug-of-war of the new security architecture in the multipolar world that is beginning to take shape. That is why they tolerate and swallow everything that Erdogan bitterly serves to the West. And according to the latest surveys, Turkey is deeply anti-American (over 70%) and anti-European in a very large percentage. So, the nationalist concept and the imperial grandeur have passed on to the vast majority of Turks. In the Parliament, 25% are ultra-nationalist parties and 40% are Islamists. In other words, the vast majority of 65% are nationalists and Islamists, so the mixture is explosive, reckless and dangerous for the entire region. And Erdogan will take advantage of it.
Erdoganism
Erdogan's system of government will go down in history as "Erdoganism". President Erdoğan, as president, feels like the new "Sun King" and with his actions declares "L'État, c'est moi", the state is me. He controls everything. He gutted the Armed Forces and now has complete control over them. He controls the country from the Mosques with 85.000 Muezzins, who can mobilize millions of people if they climb the Minarets. He has absolute control inside the country with the Military Gendarmerie, with over 130.000 military gendarmerie, excellently equipped, who even participate in operations. The state apparatus is under absolute government control.
With this election, Erdogan wants to be the one to complete all his visions and make Turkey the third pole in the new security architecture in the region, the new multipolar system. This year, 100 years since the Treaty of Lausanne, he estimates that he is dismantling Kemalism, surpassing its founder Mustafa Kemal and becoming, in his view, the new Ataturk the majestic. Mustafa Kemal was the founder of the modern Turkish republic, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is creating the new Turkey and promises that it will be the century of Turkey. He sees himself as competing with history. As the young Atatürk, his idols are Muhammad II the Conqueror (1453) and Alp Arslan, the winner of the Battle of Majikert (1071). And within these five years, my personal assessment is that he will also make the big event, which will leave his mark definitively in the history of Turkey. He will move the capital from Ankara to Istanbul.
The continuation of Turkey's revisionist, aggressive policy should be considered certain, where its main effort will be Greece, the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. In the beginning, Turkey's policy will be mild, without dangerous outbreaks because it needs the money of the West to rebuild the country from the earthquakes. When the beast heals its wounds from the earthquake and gets the money needed for reconstruction, then we will again see the same and worse Turkey of the last three years. We have gained time, we have strengthened our Armed Forces, we are capable of facing any Turkish action. In the time that will still be given us, we should cover any defensive gaps so that we are ready for any eventuality. I am sure that the Armed Forces will stand up to the national circumstances if required, I wish and hope that our political leadership will also stand up to the same height and not be tempted by messages and international pressures for co-exploitation, synergies, international courts and other pompous, but nationally harmful. Let's be careful and be ready.
