Written by Giannos Charalambidis
How the Cyprus issue is affected by the new US strategy while the EU is
in decline and China in prosperity – The role of Russia and the wealth of the Indo-Pacific
While the President of the Republic is already discussing with the occupying leader Tufan Erhürman 5 to 6 areas of co-ownership within the framework of political equality and equal sovereignty, the Americans are communicating the main pillars of their international policy. On the basis of these pillars, they seek to maintain their global dominance in a new geopolitical environment, in which the EU is in decline. Since the USA is a superpower, it is logical that they should also have a say in issues such as the Cyprus problem, which are unresolved. The question is whether they intend to intervene and to what extent, as well as whether the Cyprus problem, with the turn it is taking, can escape the power of Turkey, which largely determines and locks the settlement into the practice of a bifurcated form of solution.
The Atlas of the system and the decline of the EU
The US no longer wants to be the Atlas of the global system, carrying all the burdens, especially the economic ones. But it will remain the dominant country in the world, with an emphasis on supporting its own state sovereignty and that of its allies in the structural logic of nation-states instead of supranational institutions based on the doctrine of “Flexible Realism”.
These and many more are mentioned in the US global strategy by President Donald Trump and his associates. And their references to China, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as to Europe, which he approaches realistically in order to claim that it is on a declining path for:
- Political reasons, which are related to the credibility of the leadership of the EU and its states.
- Economic reasons due to lack of raw materials and poor planning and choices. Plus the costs that the EU is bearing from the war in Ukraine.
- Cultural reasons related to immigration.
- Structural reasons in the sense of the institutional and political framework of the EU itself as a multinational organization, but also of the weaknesses of the member states that make it up to take effective decisions either individually or collectively.
11% economic decline and cultural extinction
According to the American document, the EU has lost 11% of the global GDP pie since 1990. The following is stated in this regard: "From 25% in 1990 to 14% today – partly due to national and supranational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness." And the following are added: “However, this economic decline pales in comparison to the real, more tangible prospect of cultural extinction. The biggest issues facing Europe include the activities of the European Union and other supranational bodies that undermine political freedom and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and causing tensions, censorship of free speech and repression of political opposition, collapsing birth rates, and the loss of national identities and self-confidence.
"If current trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. It is therefore far from certain that some European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies. Many of these nations are now doubly committed to their current course. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its cultural self-confidence, and to abandon its failed emphasis on suffocating regulatory interventionism."
The importance of Moscow
The US expresses its opposition to the Europeans' stance on the Ukraine war because, as they observe, what they want as a result, namely Russia's defeat, is not realistic. The truth is that the Americans are building the normalization of their relations with Moscow, because their main balancing policy is with China, on the practice of a global, controlled by them, competition at all levels. So, just as they closed the "hole" of the Middle East - as much as it can be closed - now they want to close the war in Ukraine so that there is stabilization in US-Russia, Russia-Europe and Russia-US-Europe relations. For the US – and this is explicitly stated in the strategic document – it is self-destructive for Europe to lose its Western character due to immigration and its continuous decline on an economic and political level, since the space of Eurasia and its periphery is considered important, to which belongs the arc from the Balkans to the Middle East, within which Cyprus, Greece and Israel fall.
Half of the world's GDP and the roads
This arc takes on particular significance due to the importance the US attaches to the “Indo-Pacific.” And why does it attach this importance? Because, according to its own strategic report: “The Indo-Pacific is already the source of almost half of global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and one-third in nominal terms. This share is certain to increase in the 21st century. This means that the Indo-Pacific is already – and will continue to be – one of the critical economic and geopolitical arenas of the next century. To prosper at home, we must compete successfully there – and we are doing so.” The control of sea routes by the USA is important, as is India, whose route to Europe passes off Cyprus and from there to Greece and the rest of the Old Continent. It is an alternative route to the Chinese Silk Road. Both maritime and land, in which Turkey has an important role to play.
US – EU travel rules
Trump is ringing a bell in Europe and showing it how to save itself based on the following political axes:
First: Joining forces with him on immigration, which aims to limit it, if not end it.
Second: Strengthening the nation-state and its power. It is evident from the Trump report that the US will support Europe with politicians and policies in this philosophy, contributing to collective defense with those states that, through decline, will maintain levels of seriousness and credibility at the level of politics and armed forces.
Third: Ending the war in Ukraine and restoring relations with Russia. Because Eurasia should play a balancing role to China. The issue is not security but also economic, as well as geopolitical, since the US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine, that is, to complete control in the Western Hemisphere, in other words, in the American continent, but with Trump's touches. This means controlling the supply chain routes and limiting Chinese influence, which will give the US the opportunity to have its hands free elsewhere, for its global dominance, but without adopting the political practice of severe, until recently, interventionism, which means complications in relations with states instead of smooth cooperation.
China and the Heart of the Earth
The US goal is to increase its GDP from 30 trillion, which it is today, to 40, by 2030, in order to maintain its global power against China. Within this scenario, Cyprus and Greece stand in relation to Turkey, which is clearly one of the balancing actors for the US, both in terms of power and defense and in trade routes and transactions. The American strategy helps the Turkish policy of the pendulum from China to Russia and Europe due to its geopolitical position near the Heart of the Earth, that is, imperial Russia.
In the footsteps of the Dogma
If one examines the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), i.e. India's path to Europe, one will realize that it is in the footsteps of the Common Defense Area Doctrine, including Israel, whose upgrade the US seeks, but also the further conditions of stability in its relations with Turkey and the Arab States. Something like this could happen in Turkey-Israel relations if Ankara's policy changes, a development that is difficult while Tayyip Erdogan is in power. The scenario of a "cold coexistence" under the high supervision of the US is more likely.
USA, Israel and Britain
The Cyprus problem is an open issue, which, since it does not have an active “volcanic character”, does not pose a direct threat to the interests of the Americans. “We will intervene – their strategic text states – where our interests are threatened”. Therefore, it would be possible for them to accept the existing de facto situation in order not to displease Turkey and Greece, which are NATO allies, or one of the two, or even Israel, which would not want to see Cyprus fall under the full control of Turkey through a federal or confederal solution. Why? Because the vital space from Cyprus to Crete is considered an Israeli lung due to the lack of strategic depth and due to the increase in the Turkish threat through Cyprus. As for the threat through Cyprus, the same applies to Turkey in reverse, hence the voices against the Cyprus-Israel cooperation. Ankara considers Cyprus as an integral part of its security, especially in the context of the Blue Homeland. Therefore, any relationship that strengthens Israel through Cyprus weakens Turkey if this relationship is perceived as a threat. The Cyprus-Greece arc from Thrace to Cyprus is an extension of any defense and security within the EU and NATO, in the region and in the Eurasian arc, which is related to the broader US plans towards the Indian Ocean through IMEC and otherwise. Britain is also on the scene, which has historically acted on the Cyprus issue at a diplomatic level and has bases playing an important role in the region. It is, by tradition, the architect of a bifurcated form of solution and a supporter of Turkey.
Harsh realism and alchemy
These are equations for difficult solvers and related to the solution and form of the Cyprus problem. And let's pay attention to this: Trump states in his strategy report that, to resolve disputes, he uses unorthodox methods that take into account the importance of US interests and how they will be best served. If he deals with us, it is likely that he will not examine the indicator of the dichotomous nature of a federation or the democratic nature of the solution. He will draw a line and place us under the control of Turkey, ensuring either one way or the other the interests of Israel. And if this happens, it will happen because we do not take care of our self-sufficient defense and the reliable alliance with Greece, which offer enhanced security and state sovereignty. These concepts and variables are appreciated by Trump and generally by those who control the international system. If the weak does not seek its strengthening, it is left to its fate. Beware, Mr. President, of the alchemies of federation and condominium. Because flexible appeasement is subordinate to flexible American realism, let alone the harsh realism of Turkey, which has no trace of idealism.
These tables are based on the theory and practice of classical Realism. They are a qualitative rather than quantitative model of variables. The scales are not quantitative but qualitative in nature.
Based on the original model, a new one emerges, which offers, based on realism and the rules of power and geopolitics, those variables that Cyprus should improve so that the solution is not trapped in the line of Turkish power.
Note: The technological methodology is based on the use of the Python programming language for the systematic processing and visualization of geopolitical data. The qualitative power ratings were converted to numerical values (0–10) and organized into data matrices (arrays). The matplotlib library was used for the graphical representation, which allows the production of bar charts with accuracy and reproducibility. The method ensures objective presentation, easy comparison of actors and the possibility of extension to more complex power analysis models.
The map depicts US global policy in the Western Hemisphere, where they are restoring the Monroe Doctrine with Trumpian touches, but also in the Eastern Hemisphere, where China is the central competitive force. Therefore, the Americans, with various compensatory moves, seek to rein it in.
The map depicts the great game in the Indo-Pacific, where, according to the US, 50% of the world's GDP is located. Here, the balancing character of Turkey and the Turkic states (see turquoise color), Japan and India is evident, whose IMEC reaches Europe, following in the Eastern Mediterranean the stigma of the Unified Defense Doctrine, which geopolitical reality dictates is badly frozen. It is also clear from the arrangement of the 5th, 7th and 6th fleets that the US controls the maritime trade and other routes, having strategically trapped China with the assistance of Japan and Taiwan. As for Europe, if the situation continues, the Americans give it 20 years before it loses its Western character.
photo AS_Photography – https://pixabay.com
