Baltzoi Ioannis: How an Agreement could have prevented the war in Ukraine.
Lieutenant General (retd.) and President of the Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies (EL.I.S.M.E.) Ioannis Baltzoi on the show “O Exarcheion” (26-02-2025) in a discussion on the deterioration of relations between Europe and the United States.
Traditionally, Europe and the United States have maintained close relations, especially on defense and economic issues. However, in recent years there has been a gradual distancing, especially from the leading European powers—France, Germany, and England. Macron’s recent visit to the United States may have been accompanied by smiles and declarations of cooperation, but behind the scenes, the rupture is evident, Mr. Baltzoi argued.
Washington's political decisions show a disdain for Europe, something that was also evident from Macron's reception at the White House. The new American administration seems to be prioritizing its own geopolitical strategies, sidelining Europe and focusing on managing the Ukrainian crisis based on its own interests, Mr. Baltzoi added.
One of the biggest missed opportunities for peace in the Ukraine war was the Istanbul Agreement of April 15, 2022. This is a little-known agreement that provided for Ukraine’s neutrality, its non-membership in NATO and the recognition of Donbas as an autonomous region. If the agreement had been signed, Russia would not have made territorial claims beyond Crimea, while Ukraine would have maintained its sovereignty, with reduced military forces. However, the intervention of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who visited Kiev and warned Zelensky not to sign, overturning the agreement, led to further escalation, Mr. Baltzois stressed.
The agreement that the US is currently promoting with Ukraine reveals a different narrative. It is based on the exploitation of the country’s natural resources, creating a “Ukrainian-American Fund”, through which the US will control Ukraine’s financial revenues, noted Mr. Baltzoi. The Ukrainian government has accepted that the country’s largest reserves of minerals, lithium and grain will come under the control of Western companies. At the same time, the reconstruction of Ukraine will be entrusted to Europe, ensuring yet another economic gain for the Western powers. Thus, Ukraine finds itself in a trap, where it has neither received adequate security guarantees nor retains full control over its resources.
Mr. Baltzoi added that Greece, like many European countries, followed the US line and approved military aid to Ukraine, without assessing the consequences for its own national interests. Greece's choice to follow American policy uncritically looks more like a diplomatic trap than a strategic choice.
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